Why We Should Not Look For Aliens - The Dark Forest

Why We Should Not Look For Aliens - The Dark Forest

The universe is incredibly big and seems full of potential for a knife with billions of habitable planets 0.1% of the speed of light. It could colonize our galaxy in roughly 100 million years. Which is not that long given the billions of years the milky way has existed. So in principle, Benny's base-bearing civilization should be able to spread rapidly over huge sectors of the gallery and yet we've seen nothing seems empty. Devoid of others This is the semi paradox which we've discussed in more detail in other videos. We desperately want to know if we are alone in a muggy way. We want to call out and reveal ourselves to anyone watching but that could be the last thing we ever do Because maybe the universe is not empty. Maybe it's full of civilizations that are hiding from each other the solution to the family paradox: The way of life. The hunter awakes in his hiding place. And carefully listens for suspicious noises from the thick undergrove before he gets out. Another night Has passed without incident. The forest is dark and full of fog. He considers calling out to others to end his loneliness. But stops himself at the last moment. What if they are like him? All living things. Speak to survive. Secure results. And multiplying. Their greatest obstacle is other living things that share the same objective. Competition between species favored the survival of being competitive, expansive, and greedy for resources which led them to win the competition for our planet. Today most utter animals are so utterly at our mercy that we wipe out about a dozen species a day just as an unintentional byproduct of how we like to run things but humans are more than individuals. From us, cultures emerge that also compete with each other. Competitive and excited. Spread faster and further and merge with subview or destroy others it becomes clear. We are dangerous. Not just to others but also to ourselves. Our human nature has driven us to take over every corner of our planet and soon we will Look to the stars both to expand our domain and ensure access to Evermore resources. And then we might stumble upon others trying to do the same thing. It's likely that the competition of life also takes place far away. Thanks to us. Similar to us. They too. Maybe dangerous. The implication. Answer Hunter sneaks through the dark forest to all alone Might be others like it. He can't know their intentions if they are aggressive or not. The hunter knows he would kill to ensure his own survival. So he has to assume that they would stumble upon another hunter. The one that shoots the First device. None of this means that conflict is unavoidable. So far the progress of the modern world seems to have made us more peaceful. No more violence progress means less conflict, not more Different alien civilizations also should vary from the mild and peaceful to the beloved and militaristic the existential problem where facing is it when we meet others between the stars we have no way of telling who is peaceful or aggressive and what they're true intentions are. Similarly, They might not understand or trust Aaron's tensions even if we tell them that we are peaceful. On top of that if we did discover another civilization and they discovered us the night years between us would mean years of communication delay Because there are another series of issues technology explosions and the first strike advantage we don't know where the limits of technology are but we do know how much technological progress matters in war confirm conflict with uncertain results into a one Against Napoleon's army with their Canons and Musket artillery from the first World War which would not stand a chance against today's drones and dive missiles. So the power level of different civilizations may vary massively. Hi, we might already be hopelessly behind on the tech tree sending an invasion seat takes so long. By the time it arrives, it might be hopelessly sleepy. So the war between civilizations might be just about eliminating the other to remove an existential threat to yourself. Someone else who might be so scared of you that they attack the first chance they get. In this environment, the only way to guarantee That the target has no chance of survival or time to canter attack or escape to seek revenge later is possible with no run for error that leaves them pretty vulnerable. All you need to do is Throw something massive at a planet to make it inhabitable, probably something like a relativistic kill vehicle, a significant fraction of this rate of light. For example, a missile the size of a person going 95% of the speed of light Success would be 30 certain even a single hit with the fight this is not that observation of an ideal scale would have enough energy Send multiple strikes against every planet it's suspected of harboring a knife. What makes these weapons so sinister is how much they favor the first strike and protect yourself effectively against them once they're launched. The conflict between civilizations may not be lengthy affairs But rapid winner takes all situations where the first one to shoot when this makes any civilization an existential threat to any other and if every civilization is an existential threat to every other there may be only two kinds of civilizations out there quiet ones And dead ones. So what should we do? Should we worry? It's unlikely that anybody has noticed humanity. Yes. The radio signals we've transmitted in the last 100 years. Traveled a relatively tiny distance and have long decade into unreadable noise If we don't actively try to get noticed and if nobody's specifically looking at our pretty unremarkable solar system we'll stay hidden but 1 day we will venture into space in a serious way and need to consider these kinds of questions again. We don't know if there are others or if we are going through Forest alone. But we have no way of knowing for sure. For the time being it seems the best we can do is to carefully listen. And even if we see others step into a clearing and make themselves known we should not reply right away. But carefully wants them from the underground perhaps we are also thinking about this all wrong. By allowing our primitive brain that evolved in the context of the gruesome competition of life to conjure fears of predatory aliens all around it. Maybe the fact that we are looking at the university like this is a sign that we are not grown up yet as a species. There could be a friendly welcoming community of alien civilizations waiting to hear from us. We are ready. Answer now. The good news is there is actually little we need to do. We just need to be thoughtful about the signals we send out into the galaxy. We need to watch the sky and learn more about our galaxy. Our forest is full of dangers or Or nobody at all can only cancel observation and find a comfortable position the sun melts the fog away Thought he admires the vegetation until suddenly considering all the different options. The hunter takes a deep breath Makes a decision. Maybe the only way out of the dark forest together and with this hopeful picture we say goodbye to the year 12021 of the human era. It was a wild year, to say the least. Hiding more and more free tea in our videos and big and ambitious plans that we can't wait to share with you. And all of this was and is possible because of your direct support. Thank you so much. Only works because of you. So in tune with the end of the year, we've designed a few products that will help you to visualize your place in the universe. Our very shiny Increasing distance Getting something from our shop is the best way to support. We hope you have a wonderful end of the year and the 12022 lists are more fun and less exciting than the last 2 years. Thank you for reading.